Using the fuzzy logic description for the ex ante risk assessment in the project / Ewa Kozien, Marek S. Kozien // W: 35th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development - "Sustainability ... więcej

Using the fuzzy logic description for the ex ante risk assessment in the project / Ewa Kozien, Marek S. Kozien // W: 35th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development - "Sustainability from an Economic and Social Perspective", Lisbon, 15-16 November 2018: book of proceedings [Dokument elektroniczny] / eds. Humberto Ribeiro, Dora Naletina, Ana Lorga da Silva ; Varazdin Development and Entrepreneurship Agency [et al.]. – Varazdin, Croatia : Varazdin Development and Entrepreneurship Agency, 2018. – (Economic and Social Development : book of proceedings, ISSN 1849-7535). – S. 224-231 : rys. – Tryb dostępu: https://www.esd-conference.com/past-conferences. – Bibliogr. 29 poz., Abstr.

Each action undertaken by a human being is connected with a risk. It also refers to actions with unrepeatable character, such as projects. Projects as such are perceived as enterprises of unique character, ... więcej

Each action undertaken by a human being is connected with a risk. It also refers to actions with unrepeatable character, such as projects. Projects as such are perceived as enterprises of unique character, referring to future solutions, the results of which may differ from accepted assumptions and goals in the project. The main problem in quantitative risk analysis is description of influence of uncertainity. The mathematical methods used for its description are generally based on the four attempts: deterministic with elements of statistical analysis, stochastic, using fuzzy logic and using interval computations.In risk analysis there are usually taken into account the following areas of risks: project milieu, client and contract, suppliers, maturity of the organization, project characteristics and project team. The following thesis was formulated in the article: identification and ex ante risk assessment contributes to its efficient implementation or abandonment of its implementation. The goal of the article is the ex ante assessment of the complete project risk at most based on six partial risks specified in the scope of project milieu (client, terms and conditions of the contract, suppliers, maturity of an organization, scope of the project, project team), using the fuzzy logic attempt.