Multiple-context uncertainty limitation in investment process / Grzegorz Ginda, Mariusz Maślak // W: Proceeding of the 7th International Symposium on Reliability Engineering and Risk Management, November ... więcej

Multiple-context uncertainty limitation in investment process / Grzegorz Ginda, Mariusz Maślak // W: Proceeding of the 7th International Symposium on Reliability Engineering and Risk Management, November 12-14, 2020, Beijing, China [Dokument elektroniczny] / eds. Xiaowen Ji, Zhao-Hui Lu, Yan-Gang Zhao ; Beijing University of Technology. – Beijing : Beijing University of Technology, 2020. – [8] s. : rys., tab. – Tryb dostępu: http://www.isrerm2020.com/#/. – Oznaczenie ref./art.: F200403. – Bibliogr. s. [8], Streszcz. ang.

The forecasted effects of investment process depend on various type of factors. In general, these factors deal with design, construction, usage and maintenance as well as with internal and external risks. ... więcej

The forecasted effects of investment process depend on various type of factors. In general, these factors deal with design, construction, usage and maintenance as well as with internal and external risks. Each group of such factors is a potential source of uncertainty. The influence of the considered factors on overall uncertainty level may be assessed using different contexts which cover socio-cultural, economic, environmental, logistics, political and strategic issues. An original strategy to reduce uncertainty in the planned investment process is presented in the paper. The proposed approach is based on the identification of a network which expresses both the intensities and the directions of influence relations between individual factors determining the effect of investment process. The concept of cognitive maps is applied to model such a structure. The expert knowledge is the basis for inference. The collected opinions provide the data necessary to formulate partial assessments of the influence as well as of the importance of all considered factors. These assessments are made for different contexts. Finally, the partial evaluations are aggregated and undergo the sensitivity analysis to obtain final compromise assessments of uncertainty-related influence and importance specified for each factor. The application of the proposed strategy, due to obtainingnew knowledge about the structure of the analyzed relationships, reduces the level of uncertainty and allows for a more rational design of the planned investment process.