Determinants of the real estate prices in Poland / Victor Shevchuk // W: Modern classification and data analysis : methodology and applications to micro- and macroeconomic problems [Dokument elektroniczny] ... więcej

Determinants of the real estate prices in Poland / Victor Shevchuk // W: Modern classification and data analysis : methodology and applications to micro- and macroeconomic problems [Dokument elektroniczny] / eds. Krzysztof Jajuga, Grażyna Dehnel, Marek Walesiak. – Cham : Springer, 2022. – (Studies in Classification, Data Analysis, and Knowledge Organization, ISSN 2198-3321). – S. 119-134 : wykr. – Tryb dostępu: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-10190-8_9. – Bibliogr. [35] poz., Abstr. – Data wydania wg cop. – doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-10190-8_9. – ISBN 978-3-031-10190-8 (eBook). – ISBN 978-3-031-10189-2 (print)

Using the quarterly data for the 2010-2020 period, both long- and short-term factors behind the real estate prices for existing flats in Poland are estimated. 3 The long-term determinants of the real estate ... więcej

Using the quarterly data for the 2010-2020 period, both long- and short-term factors behind the real estate prices for existing flats in Poland are estimated. 3 The long-term determinants of the real estate prices include (i) deviations of the NBP reference rate from its Taylor rule-based counterpart and (ii) the level of GDP.Stagnation of the real estate prices in the 2010-2013 period contributed to a recovery in prices since then. The long-term estimates are robust to the choice of alternative 7 estimators (2SLS, FOLS, DOLS). In the short run, the real estate prices are affected by the changes in the central bank reference rate, wages, exchange rate of the Polish zloty to the US dollar, output in the Eurozone, as well as by the government-sponsored 10 program Family 500+. Our results are robust to the substitution of wages in the short-term regression by domestic output and control for the quality of housing and the real estate prices in Germany and the UK. Correction of the deviations of the short-term dynamics from the long-term trend seems to be rather weak, being observed mainly in the regressions with the residuals from the long-term specifications with the Taylor rule-based interest rate.