Adaptation of a cost overrun risk prediction model to the type of construction facility / Edyta Plebankiewicz, Damian Wieczorek // Symmetry [Dokument elektroniczny]. – 2020, Vol. 12, Iss. 10, Spec. Iss., ... więcej

Adaptation of a cost overrun risk prediction model to the type of construction facility / Edyta Plebankiewicz, Damian Wieczorek // Symmetry [Dokument elektroniczny]. – 2020, Vol. 12, Iss. 10, Spec. Iss., 16 s. : tab., wykr. – Tryb dostępu: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/12/10/1739/htm. – Oznaczenie ref./art.: 1739. – Bibliogr. 42 poz., Abstr. – Special Issue: Symmetric and Asymmetric Data in Solution Models. – doi: 10.3390/sym12101739. – ISSN 2073-8994

To assess the risk of project cost overrun, it is necessary to consider large amountsof symmetric and asymmetric data. This paper proposes a cost overrun risk prediction model,the structure of which is ... więcej

To assess the risk of project cost overrun, it is necessary to consider large amountsof symmetric and asymmetric data. This paper proposes a cost overrun risk prediction model,the structure of which is based on the fuzzy inference model of Mamdani. The model consists ofnumerous inputs and one output (multi-input-single-output (MISO)), based on processes runningconsecutively in three blocks (the fuzzy block, the interference block, and the block of sharpening therepresentative output value). The input variables of the model include the share of element costsin the building costs (SE), predicted changes in the number of works (WC), and expected changesin the unit price (PC). For the input variable SE, it is proposed to adjust the fuzzy set shapes to thetype of building object. Single-family residential buildings, multi-family residential buildings, officebuildings, highways, expressways, and sports fields were analyzed. The initial variable is the valueof the risk of exceeding the costs of a given element of a construction investment project (R). In all, 27 rules were assumed in the interference block. Considering the possibility of applying sharpeningmethods in the cost overrun risk prediction model, the following defuzzification methods wereinvestigated: the first of maxima, middle of maxima, and last of maxima method, the center of gravitymethod, and the bisector area method. Considering the advantages and disadvantages, the authorsassumed that the correct and basic defuzzification method in the cost overrun risk prediction modelwas the center of gravity method. In order to check the correctness of the assumption made at thestage of designing the rule database, result diagrams were generated for the relationships betweenthe variable (R) and the input variables of individual types of buildings. The results obtained confirmthe correctness of the assumed assumptions and allow to consider the input variable (SE), adjustedindividually to the model for each type of construction object, as crucial in the context of the impacton the output value of the output variable (R).